BMW CEO: The Car Chip Problem Will Not Be Solved Until 2023

In an interview with Neue Zürcher Zeitung (NZZ), Oliver Zipse, chief executive of German automaker BMW (BMWG.DE), said the semiconductor shortage is likely to remain a problem for the automotive industry through 2023, Reuters reported.

"We're still at the peak of the chip shortage," Zipse was quoted as saying. "I expect we will start to see improvements next year at the latest, but we will still have to deal with a fundamental shortage in 2023."

BMW said at its annual press conference in mid-March that it expects the chip shortage to continue through 2022.

Zipse's comments echoed a similar statement Saturday from Volkswagen CFO Arno Antlitz, who said he expects chip supply to meet demand only in 2024.

VW CFO Arno Antlitz recently said in an interview with the German stock market daily (Boersen-Zeitung), that chip supply may have to wait until 2024 to fully meet demand, the structural supply shortage problem can then be resolved.

Antlitz said, although the production bottleneck is expected to begin to ease at the end of this year, 2023 production is expected to return to 2019 levels, but still can not meet the rising demand for chips. He also mentioned that the Porsche (Porsche SE) IPO (initial public offering), which is expected to debut at the end of this year, is expected to finance the FOSS Group's software division and battery production plans.

The Financial Times reported on April 6 that Antlitz said in an interview that the number of gasoline/diesel models sold by the VW Group in Europe (currently at least 100) will be reduced by 60 percent in the next eight years.

CNBC reported that the VW Group said on March 15 that it had sold out of capacity for the 2022 version of battery-powered vehicles (BEVs), including the Porsche Taycan.

McKinsey & Company (McKinsey & Company) published a report on April 1, pointed out that in the remote work (work from home, WFH), artificial intelligence (AI) growth and electric vehicle (EV) demand soaring mega-trends driven by the global semiconductor market output is estimated to expand from $ 600 billion in 2021 to $ 1 trillion in 2030.

McKinsey pointed out that about 70% of the growth momentum from three industries: automotive, computing and data storage, and wireless. Driven by applications such as autonomous driving and electric mobility, automotive is likely to be the strongest growing chip market.

McKinsey estimates that in 2030 to meet the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) definition of Level 4 (Level 4, L4) self-driving electric vehicle chips cost maybe $4,000, much higher than SAE Level 1 internal combustion engine (ICE) models of $500.

In 2021, automotive chips accounted for only 8% of the output value of the semiconductor market, in 2030 the proportion is expected to rise to 13-15%. According to this projection, the growth momentum of the chip industry in the next few years will be two percent of the automotive market.

In this global shortage of chips in the status quo, resulting in the delivery of new cars to wait for up to 9 months to a year, the import of cars especially serious shortage of cars, so now car dealers test ride cars, show cars become sought after, and even new car orders change hands, earn the price difference, and the lack of new cars also drive up the price of the used car market, some special car models of used prices are even approaching the new car offer.

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